Market Summary

To help keep our clients ahead of the curve when it comes to their energy initiatives, CES publishes a weekly market newsletter which discusses key energy events, provides market analysis, and delivers a practical summary of current market conditions.

 
 
 

AUGUST 26 - 30, 2024

WTI closed at $73.55/barrel on Friday, down 1.71% from the week prior, while Brent closed at $79.94/barrel, up 1.16% week-over-week. Crude futures pricing experienced fluctuations amid tightening supply in the Middle East and indications that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates at its mid-September meeting. The NYMEX prompt month, which switched over to October on Thursday, rose by 11¢ week-over-week to $2.13/MMBtu, a 5.2% increase. The rolling 12-month strip increased slightly by 0.9% week-over-week to $2.93/MMBtu. Cooler weather forecasts indicate a reduction in gas demand over the next week. The NEPOOL 12-month electricity strip was up by 0.41% week-over-week to $58.77/MWh, matching the trend in calendar year strips for electricity. The 2025, 2026, and 2027 calendar year strips also climbed last week as the weekly average temperature inched higher than a week ago.    

 
 

AUGUST 19 - 23, 2024

WTI closed at $74.83/barrel on Friday, down 2.37% from the week prior, while Brent closed at $79.02/barrel, down 0.83% week-over-week. Crude futures pricing saw a week-over-week price amid mediation on a Gaza truce proposal and likely interest rate cuts. NYMEX prompt month futures prices fell by 4.8% week-over-week to $2.02/MMBtu, and the rolling 12-month strip decreased slightly by 0.7% week-over-week to $2.90/MMBtu. A higher-than-expected storage increase for the week ended August 16 contributed to price drops. The NEPOOL 12-month electricity strip was down by 2.34% week-over-week to $60.69/MWh, matching the trend in calendar year strips for electricity. The 2025, 2026, and 2027 calendar year strips also slid last week after a decrease in natural gas prices.    

 
 
 

AUGUST 12 - 19, 2024

WTI closed at $73.23/barrel on Friday, down 0.13% from the week prior, while Brent closed at $77.36/barrel, down 0.04% week-over-week. Crude futures pricing saw a week-over-week price rebound amid positive economic indicators out of the United States and fears over geopolitical conflict. The NYMEX prompt month fell by 0.8% week-over-week to $2.12/MMBtu, and the rolling 12-month strip decreased by 3.7% week-over-week to $2.92/MMBtu. Reduced production and imports contributed to tightening supply in the week ended August 9th, which saw the first August net storage withdrawal in nearly two decades. The NEPOOL 12-month electricity strip was down by 1.02% week-over-week to $60.04/MWh, matching the trend in calendar year strips for electricity. The 2025, 2026, and 2027 calendar year strips also slid last week despite an increase in Henry Hub natural gas prices.    

 
 

AUGUST 5 - 9, 2024

WTI closed at $76.84/barrel on Friday, up 4.52% from the week prior, while Brent closed at $79.16/barrel, up 3.71% week over week. Crude futures pricing saw a week-over-week price rebound amid potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and fears over escalating conflict in the Middle East. Prompt month NYMEX future prices rose by 8.1% week-over-week to $2.13/MMBtu after reaching a three-month low. The rolling 12-month strip rose by 4.9% week-over-week to $2.99/MMBtu. Increased cooling demand and feedgas demand for LNG exports have contributed to a tightening market. The NEPOOL 12-month electricity strip was up by 1.40% week-over-week to $60.66/MWh, matching the trend in calendar year strips for electricity. The 2025, 2026, and 2027 calendar year strips also climbed last week following a slight increase in Henry Hub natural gas prices.  

 
 
 

JULY 29 - AUGUST 3, 2024

WTI closed at $73.52/barrel on Friday, down 4.72% from the week prior, while Brent closed at $76.81/barrel, down 5.32% week over week. Crude futures pricing saw week-over-week declines amid concerns over escalating conflict in the Middle East and missed growth forecasts in China. The NYMEX prompt month, which switched over to September last week, fell by 2% week-over-week to $1.97/MMBtu, while the 12-month rolling strip increased by 1.4% to $2.85/MMBtu. Increased production and a low storage injection have contributed to mixed movement in the market. The NEPOOL 12-month electricity strip was down by 2.08% week-over-week to $59.66/MWh, matching the trend in calendar year strips for electricity. The 2025, 2026, and 2027 calendar year strips also slid last week following a decrease in Henry Hub natural gas prices.   

 
 

JULY 22 - 26, 2024

WTI closed at $77.16/barrel on Friday, down $3.71% from the week prior, while Brent closed at $81.13/barrel, down 1.82% week over week. Crude futures pricing saw week-over-week declines amid wildfires in Canada, economic growth reports, and efforts to end the war in Gaza. Prompt month NYMEX future prices decreased by 5.6% week-over-week to land at $2.01/MMBtu, and the rolling 12-month strip dropped 2.8% week-over-week to $2.81/MMBtu. Power burn in the month of July is at an all-time high, with the natural gas storage surplus making it an ideal backup generation fuel. The NEPOOL 12-month strip decreased 1.86% week-over-week to $60.75/MWh. The 2025 and 2026 calendar year strips also decreased, while this 2027 strip slightly increased week-over-week. 

 
 
 

JULY 15 - 19, 2024

The WTI and Brent prompt months experienced minor changes this week. WTI fell 3% week-over-week to $80.13/barrel, and Brent decreased 2.8% week-over-week to $82.63/barrel. The U.S. dollar hit a 17-week low, which is predicted to boost demand for oil because commodities will be cheaper for other currencies. Natural gas prompt month future prices decreased by 8.6% week-over-week to land at $2.13/MMBtu. Month-to-date production is slightly lower this year than in 2023, while the storage surplus continues to tighten, with prices softened by a reduction in LNG exports. The NEPOOL 12-month electricity strip decreased 1.16% week-over-week to land at $61.92/MWh. The calendar year strips followed suit, with all three years decreasing just slightly week-over-week. The Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources issued an emergency filing for their Clean Peak Energy Standard.  

 
 

JULY 8 - 12, 2024

WTI prompt month closed at $82.21/barrel on Friday, down 1.14% week over week, while Brent closed at $85.03/barrel, down 1.74% from the week prior. Crude futures pricing decreased slightly week-over-week mostly because of decreasing demand in China. Demand growth elsewhere, however, is still present, which largely offsets any significant price movement. The natural gas prompt month ticked up slightly week-over-week despite significant movement through the week, as above average storage build cooled the demand impacts of a heat wave across much of the U.S. The NEPOOL 12-month electricity strip decreased just 0.41% week-over-week to land at $62.45/MWh. The calendar year strips followed suit, with all three years decreasing just slightly week-over-week. FERC approved the second phase of ISO-NE's Long-Term Planning Process.  

 
 
 

JUNE 24 - 28, 2024

WTI closed at $81.54/barrel on Friday, up 1% week over week, while Brent closed at $86.39/barrel, up 1.35% from the week prior. Crude futures pricing saw week-over-week gains amid concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe despite an unexpected jump in crude oil stocks. The natural gas prompt month decreased by 25¢ or 8.8% week-over-week to land at $2.60/MMBtu. The end of the heat wave and increased production are contributing to downward price pressure, as power burn continues to be a major driver of the gas market. The NEPOOL 12-month electricity strip slightly bumped up 1.88% last week to settle at $62.62/MWh. The calendar year strips followed suit, with all three years increasing slightly week over week. 

 
 

JUNE 17 - 21, 2024

WTI closed at $80.73/barrel on Friday, up $2.91% from the week prior, while Brent closed at $85.24/barrel, up 3.17% week over week. Crude futures pricing saw week-over-week gains amid concerns over escalating tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East and an uncertain timeline over interest rate cuts. Prompt month futures fell by 18¢ week-over-week to $2.71/MMBtu, representing a 6.1% decrease. Power burn for cooling demand has driven increases in production, leading to net downward pressure on gas prices. The NEPOOL 12-month electricity strip was up by 2.2% week-over-week to $62.30/MWh, matching the trend in calendar year strips for electricity. The 2025, 2026, and 2027 calendar year strips also climbed last week following increases in Henry Hub and Algonquin natural gas spot prices.  

 
 
 

JUNE 10 - 14, 2024

WTI and Brent prices both experienced increases this week. WTI was up 5.55% to land at $75.94/barrel week-over-week, and Brent was up 4.99% week-over-week to settle at $80.37/barrel. Natural gas prompt month futures increased by 2.1% week-over-week to land at $2.88/MMBtu after trading above $3/MMBtu on June 10th for the first time since mid-January. Demand for power generation, up slightly from last year, has been a major contributor to recent upward price movement. The NEPOOL 12-month electricity strip was up by 3.1% week-over-week to $60.96/MWh, and the calendar year strips recorded mixed movements. The 2025 and 2026 strips were up, while the 2027 calendar year strip slid last week. NYMEX and gas prices in the Northeast are causing upward pressure in the market.

 
 

JUNE 3 - 7, 2024

WTI and Brent prices both experienced decreases this week. WTI was down 6.36% to $71.95/barrel week-over-week, and Brent was down 6.18% week-over-week to $76.55/barrel. The New York Harbor Heating Oil price registered a 5.47% decrease over the last week to $2.35/gallon. The natural gas prompt month rose by 35¢ or 13.5% week-over-week to land at $2.92/MMBtu. U.S. dry natural gas production dropped week-over-week, while national consumption increased, driven by the industrial and power sectors. A narrowing supply surplus put upward pressure on markets. The NEPOOL 12-month electricity strip was up by 4.2% week-over-week to $59.06/MWh, matching the trend in calendar year strips for electricity. The 2025, 2026, and 2027 calendar year strips also climbed last week following increases in Henry Hub and Algonquin natural gas spot prices.

 
 
 

MAY 27 - 31, 2024

WTI and Brent prices experienced moderate increases this week. WTI was up 2.11% to $76.84/barrel week-over-week, and Brent was up 2.19% week-over-week to $81.59/barrel. The New York Harbor Heating Oil price registered a 0.77% increase over the last week to $2.48/gallon. The natural gas prompt month, which shifted from June to July last week, fell 6.5% week-over-week to land at $2.59/MMBtu. Upward pressure from increased LNG exports was relieved by falling U.S. natural gas demand in the residential and commercial sectors towards the end of the week. The NEPOOL 12-month electricity strip was down by 4.3% week-over-week to $56.57/MWh, matching the trend in calendar year strips for electricity. The 2025, 2026, and 2027 calendar year strips also slid last week following a decrease in Henry Hub and Algonquin natural gas spot prices.

 
 

MAY 20 - 24, 2024

WTI and Brent prices have dropped by around 5% per barrel since the late April mark but experienced minimal movement this week. WTI was down 0.87% to $75.25/barrel week-over-week, and Brent was down 0.66% week-over-week to $79.84/barrel. The natural gas prompt month fell by 11¢ or 4% to $2.52/MMBtu week-over-week, after reaching its highest point since January on May 22nd. Upward pressure from increased LNG exports was relieved by falling U.S. natural gas demand in the residential and commercial sectors towards the end of the week. The NEPOOL 12-month electricity strip rose by 2.84% week-over-week to $59.35/MWh, matching the trend in calendar year strips for electricity. The 2025, 2026, and 2027 calendar year strips also climbed last week following an increase in Henry Hub and Algonquin natural gas spot prices.  

 
 
 

MAY 13 - 17, 2024

WTI and Brent prices have dropped by around 6.9% per barrel since the mid-April mark but experienced minimal movement this week. WTI was down 0.44% to $75.91/barrel week-over-week, and Brent was down 0.62% week-over-week to $80.37/barrel. The natural gas prompt month continued its sharp upward movement, rising by 33 cents or 14% week-over-week to $2.63/MMBtu. U.S. production is down week-over-week to 99.4 Bcf/d, and another smaller-than-expected storage injection of 70 Bcf contributed, along with falling production, to increased prompt month prices. The NEPOOL 12-month electricity strip rose by 2.2% week-over-week to $57.72/MWh, matching the trend in calendar year strips for electricity. As of today, ISO New England reports 17,982 MW of available capacity in the region, 1,947 MW of which is marked as surplus capacity.

 
 

MAY 6 - 10, 2024

WTI and Brent prices have dropped by around 6 dollars per barrel since the mid-April mark but experienced minimal movement this week. WTI was up one cent to $75.70/barrel week-over-week, and Brent was down 0.18% week-over-week to $80.31/barrel. The prompt month has continued to rise dramatically, up 10% week-over-week to $2.25/MMBtu. A smaller-than-expected injection saw NYMEX prompt-month futures hit their highest price since late January as production has also fallen to its lowest level in about two years. New England electricity prices showed overall downward movement over the past week, with all calendar strips falling, while the NEPOOL 12-month strip rose slightly by 4 cents or 0.1% week-over-week to land at $56.33/MWh.

 
 
 

APRIL 15 - 19, 2024

Prices for both WTI and Brent dropped to a seven-week low last week. WTI was down 4.22% week-over-week to $75.85/barrel, and Brent was down 3.71% week-over-week to $81.17/barrel. Prices were impacted by strong U.S inventories, the prospect of a Middle East ceasefire agreement, and fading hopes for near-term U.S. interest rate cuts. The prompt month rose 32% to $2.14/MMBtu week-over-week. Production has fallen an estimated 5% since December, down to an average of 99.5 Bcf/day in April from the record high of 105 Bcf/day. New England electricity prices showed mixed movement over the past week, with the NEPOOL 12-month strip rising by 1.1% week-over-week to land at $56.29/MWh, while near-term calendar strips fell slightly. Upward pressure from anticipated natural gas demand and a hot summer forecast is tempered by mild forecasts for May and high gas storage.

 

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