Market Summary

To help keep our clients ahead of the curve when it comes to their energy initiatives, CES publishes a weekly market newsletter which discusses key energy events, provides market analysis, and delivers a practical summary of current market conditions.

 
 
 

JUNE 10 - 14, 2024

WTI and Brent prices both experienced increases this week. WTI was up 5.55% to land at $75.94/barrel week-over-week, and Brent was up 4.99% week-over-week to settle at $80.37/barrel. Natural gas prompt month futures increased by 2.1% week-over-week to land at $2.88/MMBtu after trading above $3/MMBtu on June 10th for the first time since mid-January. Demand for power generation, up slightly from last year, has been a major contributor to recent upward price movement. The NEPOOL 12-month electricity strip was up by 3.1% week-over-week to $60.96/MWh, and the calendar year strips recorded mixed movements. The 2025 and 2026 strips were up, while the 2027 calendar year strip slid last week. NYMEX and gas prices in the Northeast are causing upward pressure in the market.

 
 

JUNE 3 - 7, 2024

WTI and Brent prices both experienced decreases this week. WTI was down 6.36% to $71.95/barrel week-over-week, and Brent was down 6.18% week-over-week to $76.55/barrel. The New York Harbor Heating Oil price registered a 5.47% decrease over the last week to $2.35/gallon. The natural gas prompt month rose by 35¢ or 13.5% week-over-week to land at $2.92/MMBtu. U.S. dry natural gas production dropped week-over-week, while national consumption increased, driven by the industrial and power sectors. A narrowing supply surplus put upward pressure on markets. The NEPOOL 12-month electricity strip was up by 4.2% week-over-week to $59.06/MWh, matching the trend in calendar year strips for electricity. The 2025, 2026, and 2027 calendar year strips also climbed last week following increases in Henry Hub and Algonquin natural gas spot prices.

 
 
 

MAY 27 - 31, 2024

WTI and Brent prices experienced moderate increases this week. WTI was up 2.11% to $76.84/barrel week-over-week, and Brent was up 2.19% week-over-week to $81.59/barrel. The New York Harbor Heating Oil price registered a 0.77% increase over the last week to $2.48/gallon. The natural gas prompt month, which shifted from June to July last week, fell 6.5% week-over-week to land at $2.59/MMBtu. Upward pressure from increased LNG exports was relieved by falling U.S. natural gas demand in the residential and commercial sectors towards the end of the week. The NEPOOL 12-month electricity strip was down by 4.3% week-over-week to $56.57/MWh, matching the trend in calendar year strips for electricity. The 2025, 2026, and 2027 calendar year strips also slid last week following a decrease in Henry Hub and Algonquin natural gas spot prices.

 
 

MAY 20 - 24, 2024

WTI and Brent prices have dropped by around 5% per barrel since the late April mark but experienced minimal movement this week. WTI was down 0.87% to $75.25/barrel week-over-week, and Brent was down 0.66% week-over-week to $79.84/barrel. The natural gas prompt month fell by 11¢ or 4% to $2.52/MMBtu week-over-week, after reaching its highest point since January on May 22nd. Upward pressure from increased LNG exports was relieved by falling U.S. natural gas demand in the residential and commercial sectors towards the end of the week. The NEPOOL 12-month electricity strip rose by 2.84% week-over-week to $59.35/MWh, matching the trend in calendar year strips for electricity. The 2025, 2026, and 2027 calendar year strips also climbed last week following an increase in Henry Hub and Algonquin natural gas spot prices.  

 
 
 

MAY 13 - 17, 2024

WTI and Brent prices have dropped by around 6.9% per barrel since the mid-April mark but experienced minimal movement this week. WTI was down 0.44% to $75.91/barrel week-over-week, and Brent was down 0.62% week-over-week to $80.37/barrel. The natural gas prompt month continued its sharp upward movement, rising by 33 cents or 14% week-over-week to $2.63/MMBtu. U.S. production is down week-over-week to 99.4 Bcf/d, and another smaller-than-expected storage injection of 70 Bcf contributed, along with falling production, to increased prompt month prices. The NEPOOL 12-month electricity strip rose by 2.2% week-over-week to $57.72/MWh, matching the trend in calendar year strips for electricity. As of today, ISO New England reports 17,982 MW of available capacity in the region, 1,947 MW of which is marked as surplus capacity.

 
 

MAY 6 - 10, 2024

WTI and Brent prices have dropped by around 6 dollars per barrel since the mid-April mark but experienced minimal movement this week. WTI was up one cent to $75.70/barrel week-over-week, and Brent was down 0.18% week-over-week to $80.31/barrel. The prompt month has continued to rise dramatically, up 10% week-over-week to $2.25/MMBtu. A smaller-than-expected injection saw NYMEX prompt-month futures hit their highest price since late January as production has also fallen to its lowest level in about two years. New England electricity prices showed overall downward movement over the past week, with all calendar strips falling, while the NEPOOL 12-month strip rose slightly by 4 cents or 0.1% week-over-week to land at $56.33/MWh.

 
 
 

APRIL 15 - 19, 2024

Prices for both WTI and Brent dropped to a seven-week low last week. WTI was down 4.22% week-over-week to $75.85/barrel, and Brent was down 3.71% week-over-week to $81.17/barrel. Prices were impacted by strong U.S inventories, the prospect of a Middle East ceasefire agreement, and fading hopes for near-term U.S. interest rate cuts. The prompt month rose 32% to $2.14/MMBtu week-over-week. Production has fallen an estimated 5% since December, down to an average of 99.5 Bcf/day in April from the record high of 105 Bcf/day. New England electricity prices showed mixed movement over the past week, with the NEPOOL 12-month strip rising by 1.1% week-over-week to land at $56.29/MWh, while near-term calendar strips fell slightly. Upward pressure from anticipated natural gas demand and a hot summer forecast is tempered by mild forecasts for May and high gas storage.

 
 

APRIL 22 - 26, 2024

Prices for both WTI and Brent experienced minimal movement this week. WTI was down 0.1% week-over-week to $79.25/barrel, and Brent was up 0.34% week-over-week to $84.29/barrel. Stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation and employment data indicates that the Federal Reserve might delay interest rate cuts. The prompt month fell 8.5% to $1.61/MMBtu week-over-week. A warm winter and low demand have left stockpiles well above the five-year averages in both the U.S. and Europe. New England electricity prices decreased over the past week, with the NEPOOL 12-month strip falling by $1.01 or 1.8% week-over-week, settling at $55.69/MWh. Mild weather forecasts and a strong generation capacity outlook relieved some pressure on electric prices, which showed some recovery this week following recent upward pressure from approaching power plant retirements and gas production cuts.

 
 
 

APRIL 15 - 19, 2024

Prices for both WTI and Brent experienced slight drops from the 5-month price peaks experienced last week. Oil prices have experienced some recent volatility due to anticipation around Iran’s response to the Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria. The natural gas prompt month fell one cent week-over-week, landing at $1.75/MMBtu. Production continues to fall, dropping to a 14-month low in the Northeast, and reduced imports from Canada have helped to tighten US supply. New England electricity prices increased over the past week, with the NEPOOL 12-month strip rising by 79 cents or 1.4% week-over-week, settling at $56.71/MWh. Upcoming power plant retirements and anticipated high summer demand have put upward pressure on electricity markets, although new capacity coming online this year positions New England well.

 
 

APRIL 8 - 12, 2024

Prices for both WTI and Brent experienced slight drops from the 5-month price peaks experienced last week. WTI was down 0.48% week-over-week to $81.61/barrel, and Brent was down 0.23% week-over-week to $86.39/barrel. Meanwhile, the New York Harbor Heating oil price registered a 1.98% decrease over the last week to $2.67/gallon. The prompt month fell just one cent week-over-week, landing at $1.76/MMBtu. A disruption at the Freeport LNG export terminal in Texas saw feedgas deliveries drop and subsequent prices rise. New England electricity prices rose over the past week, with the NEPOOL 12-month strip increasing by 96 cents or 1.7% week-over-week, settling at $55.92/MWh. Forecasts for the second half of April indicate lower than average temperatures, contributing to upward pressure on electricity pricing.

 
 
 

APRIL 1 - 5, 2024

Prices for both WTI and Brent saw upward movement over the past week. WTI was up 3.4% week-over-week to $80.84/barrel, and Brent was up 2.95% week-over-week to $85.22/barrel. WTI and Brent both reached their highest point since October on Thursday of last week. Natural gas prompt month rose 1.25% week-over-week, landing at $1.79/MMBtu. Production declined week over week to 460 million cubic feet/day in the last week of March as rising confidence in the performance of the production cuts heading into the summer has lifted prices. New England electricity prices had mixed movement over the past week, with the NEPOOL 12-month strip decreasing by $1.51 or 2.7% week-over-week, settling at $54.96/MWh. After colder weather leading into this weekend, forecasts for the first half of April indicate warmer weather than average, contributing to downward pressure on electric prices.

 
 

MARCH 25 - 29, 2024

Prices for both WTI and Brent experienced minimal movement over the week. WTI was down 0.28% week-over-week to $78.18/barrel, and Brent was up 0.02% week-over-week to $82.78 barrel. Meanwhile, the New York Harbor Heating oil price registered a 1.90% decrease over the last week to $2.58/gallon. The prompt month decreased 3.8% week-over-week, landing at $1.76/MMBtu. The City of Berkeley, California agreed to repeal its 2019 ban on natural gas hookups in new homes. New England electricity prices rose over the past week, with the NEPOOL 12-month strip increasing by $2.99, or 5.6%, week-over-week, settling at $56.47/MWh. Closure dates for the last two coal-fired power plants in New England were announced last week, with the region’s generation set to be coal-free by 2028.

 

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